Predicting Foodborne Illness Outbreaks at Restaurants: Results of a Mathematical Model

This consultant developed the first mathematical model for predicting food-borne illness outbreaks at restaurants. This consultant conducted a case control study to examine relationships between outbreaks and organizational culture, foods served, and number of customers. Data was collected on 463 restaurants at a local health department.

A structural equation model based on the number of customers, food handling violations, and raw food served was developed for estimating the risk of food-borne outbreaks at restaurants. The results of this study have important implications in the prevention of food-borne illness. A primary implication is that this structural equation model is an effective tool for estimating the risk of food-borne outbreaks at restaurants. This model will enable local health departments to identify restaurants that pose the greatest risk to public health and target more inspections and intervention efforts towards these high risk restaurants. This study also identified significant relationships between outbreaks and risk factors that were not previously studied. These results were presented to the Director of one of the largest County Public Health Departments. The results are also being presented at the National Environmental Health Association Conference.

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