Issue: Weather Foreseeabilty

A roofing job was performed over a building containing an expensive California art gallery during the normally-dry summer season. When the roofer left for the day, skies were clear, and except for the distant mountain and desert areas, no predictions of rain were made by the National Weather Service for the region in which the gallery was located. When the roofer left for the day, the open roof was left without a cover, because he determined that there was no threat of rain. At about midnight, conditions changed radically, and a few thundershowers developed and moved towards the coast. Rain occurred at the art gallery, doing considerable damage to the building and contents. The owner of the gallery sued the roofer for not having taken proper precautions.

Since the weather and its foreseeability was a principle contention in this matter, I was hired by the roofer to supply the meteorological data and knowledge required to determine whether the roofer was remiss or not. Through a variety of phone calls and inspection of available data locations, I was able to acquire certified meteorological data that covered the entire region surrounding the art gallery. These data provided an ongoing picture of how cloud cover, precipitation, temperature, humidity and wind varied as a function of time of day from the beginning of that roofer's workday until the damage had already been done by the unexpected rain. To reveal the big picture, and actually track the development and movement of the culprit thundershower, I obtained certified copies of official Doppler radar and meteorological satellite imagery (using infrared for nighttime coverage) while the detailed weather observations made at surface stations tracked the actual onset and movement of precipitation. In addition, to address the specific issue of foreseeability, I also obtained copies of official National Weather Service forecasts for the region as well as local newspaper and media predictions.

My analyses and subsequent testimony showed conclusively that the National Weather Service hadn't even changed its forecast from clear to showers until the early morning hours when everyone is usually fast asleep, and then only after rain had actually already begun falling in the region. Using the various data sources, I was able to demonstrate that it was not reasonable for the roofer or anyone to have expected the coastal region to experience rain on that evening, and in fact, statistical climatological data was used to show that historically, rain rarely occurred at this time of the year in that region. The result was that the roofer won his case, and averted a huge loss that would have put him and his company out of business.

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